Tennis
- Chris Sobey
- May 18, 2018
- 5 min read

Well, after missing out on some centre court action at the Rome Masters 1000 Series on Wednesday night due to the day session finishing late, i was more fortunate yesterday and got to witness three of the four scheduled matches. Fognini was his usual laid back self and he had a little extra swagger about him being in front of his adoring home fans, which he enjoys and can bring the best out of him if he's in the right mood.
His opponent German Gojowczyk was no pushover and when his first serve and attacking game was firing he caused Fognini some problems. However, clay is not Gojowczyk's best surface and he didn't have the patience or the guile required to beat Fognini, on his best surface, and with the majority of the crowd support behind him.
I was also fortunate enough to watch Nadal live for the first time ever on centre court and the value was doubled as he was playing one of the top NextGen stars, Canadian Shapovalov. I think its fair to say Nadal didn't win the first set by playing his best tennis, but Shapovalov's inexperience and lack of patience gifted it to him and i think Shapovalov might have been hindered by an injury as he had a strip of tape from his abdomen to his sternum. The second set was more of a procession for Nadal as Shapovalov's error count increased as Nadal turned the screw and increased the pressure.
Overall, i was not that impressed by Rafa having seen him play far far better in the past and i think Fognini should give him a much tougher test today considering they've had some close matches before (Rafa leads h2h 5-2 on clay), but if Fognini is not focussed throughout I'm afraid he could end up beating himself, a bit like Shapovalov did yesterday, as Rafa will just keep on going, applying pressure and making as few unforced errors as possible.
I was fortunate enough to watch Djokovic live again last night and he looked in good shape and health, but i think its fair to say his A game is still not there yet. He made light work of Ramos-vinolas in the first set, but the second set was much closer once Ramos-Vinolas settled in to the match. The match became quite entertaining at times, especially towards the end of the second set when Ramos-Vinolas broke Djokovic, but the eleventh seed was in no mood to offer the Spaniard a second life-line and he broke straight back and closed it out winning 6-1 7-5.
Djokovic faces the unseeded Nishikori for a place in the semi-finals today and this will be another true test of where Djokovic's game is really at, as Nishikori is clearly in good nick since returning from an injury lay-off like Djokovic, having reached the final at Monte Carlo and now the quarter finals at Rome. Djokovic is the marginal favourite, leads the head-to-head 12-2 and won all five of their matches on clay, including at Madrid recently in a tight straight sets encounter. I think Djokovic is playing well enough, he seems to be improving with each match and if that's the case and history repeats itself, Djokovic should extend the head-to-head record to 13-2 today.
I caught glimpses of the Zverev and Edmunds match yesterday and Kyle had his chances in both sets, but Zverev proved why he's the second seed and Edmunds is unseeded, by basically playing more patiently and consistently, especially when under pressure and when he created break opportunities. Zverev faces Goffin today, who progressed at the expense of one of my outright selections Del Potro, who unfortunately had to retire injured when the match was finally poised at 2-6 5-4.
Goffin supporters can take heart from the fact he leads the head-to-head 2-1 against Zverev, including a straight sets win at the Holman Cup this year, but Zverev won their only meeting on clay in three sets at the quarter finals of Munich back in 2016, which is probably more relevant in terms of the outcome of today's match. I haven't seen Goffin play so far this week (will hopefully get to see this match if its on centre court today) and while i think he'll cause Zverev problems, as he has done in the past, its hard to bet against the young German at present given the form he's been in on clay, and backing Over the Games if the lines around 21.5 or 22.5 could be the best play from a betting perspective.
Finally, my one remaining outright selection tenth seed Carreno-Busta (66/1) faces a tough task today against fourth seed Cilic, who leads the head-to-head 2-0 with wins at Basel indoors back in 2016 and in four sets at this years Australian Open. If you've backed Carreno-Busta for the tournament he's not without hope today, but he did made hard work of beating his first three opponents all in three sets, Donaldson, Johnson and Bedene yesterday, so it may be best to at least cover your outright stake if you haven't already done so.
Carreno-Busta was a set and a break up against Bedene yesterday and that additional wasted energy could be the difference today against a fresher Cilic. I've not seen either player play live this week (hopefully that will change tomorrow on centre court) so its hard to really judge both players chances from a betting perspective, but obviously Cilic is the bookies clear favourite and while my heart and wallet want Carreno-Busta to win today, my head is telling me otherwise.
The one stat that stands out from Carreno-Busta's and Cilic's past encounters is that there were four tie breaks in the six sets played and if you can get a decent price about a tie break being played in the match then i would advise going for it, as statistically it has a reasonable chance of occurring again.
Well that's it from me from Rome this week and if you've never been to Rome and ever go in the future to watch the tennis ill give you two important tips. One, get a city centre hotel or one close to the Olympic Stadium next to where the tennis is played and two, get lots of practice using the wealth of public transport (unless you can afford the luxury of taxi's everywhere) as there's trains, metro, buses and trams that cover all parts of the city centre and outlying areas. Oh, one other thing don't leave travelling home too late as if you miss the last public transport the city private taxis start doubling and even tripling their prices!







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