Tennis

Before I move on to this week’s ATP tennis action I’ll provide a quick rundown of last week’s action. At Queens top-seed Cilic (advised 6/1) warmed up well for Wimbledon by winning a second Queens against Wild Card Djokovic 4-7 7-6 6-3. At Halle, top-seed and reigning champion Federer’s nineteen match unbeaten run on grass came to an end in yesterday. Federer was shocked by NextGen star Coric in the final losing 7-6 3-6 6-2 and this was the young Croatian’s second ATP title win and first on grass.

I’ll provide a quick update on how the top-five seeds got on last week on the ATP and WTA Tours if you had opposed them in their singles matches (no bet if two top-five seeds play each other and void when player is an outright selection). It was a much better week for opposing the top-five seeds on the ATP and WTA Tours at Halle, Queens, Birmingham and Mallorca with a total of 10.90 points profit to a level 1 point stake. However, it did not prove profitable at all four tournaments with Queens and Birmingham producing a combined loss of 1.9 points, but Halle and Mallorca came good with a combined profit of 12.7 points although you would have needed to oppose Federer three times at Halle before making a profit.

On to this week’s ATP action and there are two ATP 250 events at Eastbourne and Antalya, Turkey which is a new tournament on the tour. Reigning champion Djokovic does not line up this week to defend his Eastbourne title as he chose to take a Wild Card at Queens last week where he lost the final against Cilic yesterday. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka both received Wild Cards for Eastbourne because their rankings have fallen to around 150 for Murray and 250 for Wawrinka due to time off the ATP Tour due to injury. Neither player will be happy they have drawn each other in the first round and it might not be the best outcome for the tournament if Murray loses as he attracts big crowds in the UK. I also don’t think either player will win this week because it is too soon since their return from long injury lay-offs. French Open quarter finalist Schwartzman is the top-seed at Eastbourne and British number one Kyle Edmunds is the second seed this week.

The top two seeds don’t have a great record at Eastbourne and the top-seed has won only one of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2017) and they were a losing finalist only once during this period (2014), which does not bode well for Schwartzman’s chances this week. The second seed has only won one of the last ten titles (2009) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Monfils 2017), which does not bode well for Edmunds chances this week. Seeded players in general have a strong record at Eastbourne over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than eight won seven of the last ten titles. Also, a player seeded no higher than twelve was a losing finalist in nine of the last ten finals and an unseeded player won three of the last ten titles (last 2015) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (2009).

From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player higher than two but lower than eight. However, there are no seeded players who appeal from an outright betting perspective this week, so I’ll highlight a couple of unseeded players who I believe are capable of putting together a good run this week and challenging for the title. Veteran Muller (7/1) is a proven player on grass who has won ATP titles on the surface. He’s not been in as good form so far this year compared to 2017 but he showed signs of a return to form at Queens last week beating Shapovalov and pushing finalist Cilic close before losing in three sets.

If he can reproduce his best grass form, he will be tough to beat this week. Veteran Mischa Zverev (25/1) resides in the bottom half of the draw and he is capable and talented enough to win what would be his first ATP title this week. He warmed up well for this week reaching the doubles final at Halle with younger brother Sascha and his serve and volley and chip and charge game is suited to quicker surfaces like grass as it takes time away from his opponents. If he can serve well this week he has a good chance of springing a surprise and winning a long overdue first career ATP title.

Antalya is a new grass tournament that commenced last year, and Japan’s Sugita won the inaugural title, which was his first on the main ATP Tour. Sugita lines up to defend his title this week and he will be quietly confident after warming up well with a run to the quarter finals at Halle last week. As Antalya is a new tournament there is not enough historical statistical data relating to past winners and finalists to help analyse the draw, so I will just highlight a couple of tournament selections based on past grass form, current form and value.

Top-seed and 2017 finalist Mannarino will aim to improve on last years final run this week and given his form on grass over the last few seasons he should be challenging for the title, but he does not appeal at the prices available. Veteran Baghdatis (33/1) reached the semi-finals at Antalya last year, losing to eventual winner Sugita. He resides in the top-half of the draw, is unseeded this week and he is one of the few players in the draw who has winning form on grass over the last few seasons. If he can reproduce his best form on grass this week he has a decent chance of going one better than 2017 and at least reaching the final.

From the bottom half of the draw I think it’s worth taking on second seed Dzumhur, third seed Verdasco and defending champion and seventh seed Sugita because Dzumhur has not played competitive tennis since the French Open and he could be rusty this week, third seed Verdasco has a losing record on grass over the last couple of seasons and it’s statistically unlikely Sugita will defend his title this week as only the games top players are usually capable of defending titles on the ATP Tour due to how competitive the tournaments are these days. If the above seeded players fail to perform this week veteran Copil (22/1) could benefit as he’s been in good form this year and he has a winning record on grass over the last few seasons, which make him a lively outsider this week.

From a first round match betting perspective there’s a few matches at Eastbourne that I like and that will hopefully return a nice profit. Simon leads the head-to-head 2-0 against fifth seed Mayer and the French veteran has been in good enough form so far this year to suggest he can extend his winning record against Mayer to 3-0 today. Medvedev faces a tough opener against 2016 champion and seventh seed Johnson, but the young Russian leads the head-to-head 3-0, he’s comfortable on grass and he’s been in good enough form so far this season to suggest he can extend his winning run against Johnson to 4-0.

Qualifier and NextGen star De Minaur from Australia is in great form on grass at present having won eleven of his last twelve matches on the surface and a title on the Challenger Tour at Nottingham two weeks ago. He faces veteran Kukushkin in the first round and on current form the young Aussie is worth backing to win as he also beat Kukushkin at Brisbane at the beginning of the year, which was their only match to date.

Tournament selections

Eastbourne

Muller Win (7/1)

M Zverev EW (25/1)

Antalya

Copil EW (22/1)

Baghdatis (33/1)

Match betting selections

Eastbourne

Double (3.36)

Simon to beat L Mayer

Medvedev to beat Johnson