Tennis

Before I move on to this week’s ATP Tour tennis action, I’ll provide a quick run-down of last week’s action and after a worrying start, things came good in the end with Fognini and Johnson ensuring we still made a decent profit on the week. At Bastad, third seed Fognini (advised 6/1) defeated fourth seed Gasquet in Sunday’s final 6-3 3-6 6-1 and this was Fognini’s fifth ATP title win, which not surprisingly were all on clay. At Umag third seed Cecchinato faced the unseeded Pella from Argentina and this one went to the Italian 6-2 7-6. who is in red hot form and emerging as one of the world’s best clay courters. At Newport, third seed Johnson (advised 9/1) faced the little known 23 year old Ramanathan from India, who was contesting his first ATP final, and experience told on this occasion as Johnson won a close encounter 7-5 3-6 6-2, which is his third ATP title in total and second of the season after winning Houston.

On to this week’s ATP tennis action and it’s a busy week again with three tournaments, including the prestigious ATP 500 clay court event at Hamburg. There’s another clay court event in the beautiful town of Gstaad in the Swiss Alps and the start of the North American hard court and the US Open Series swing in Atlanta, which leads up to the final Grand Slam of the season, the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

On to this week’s action and I’ll start in Europe with the ATP 500 Hamburg event. The tournament has been dominated by European players over the last decade, they have won seven of the last ten titles, the other three were won by Monaco and Leonardo Mayer from Argentina, and Mayer won twice, including in 2017 as a qualifier. The top two seeds don’t have a great record at Hamburg and the top-seed has only won one of the last ten titles (last Nadal 2015) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Ferrer 2014), which statistically does not bode well for Thiem’s chances this week but given his record at this level on clay he certainly can’t be discounted.

The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Davydenko 2009) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Schwartzman’s chances this week. Seeded players in general have a strong record at Hamburg and a player seeded no higher than twelve has won seven of the last ten titles (last Klizan 2016) and a player seeded no higher than thirteen was a losing finalist seven times during this period (last Cuevas 2016). Unseeded players have a good record at Hamburg over the last decade, winning three of the last ten titles (last L Mayer 2017) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist three times during this period (last F Mayer 2017).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player from three to eight or an unseeded player, including Wild Cards, Qualifiers and Lucky Losers. As mentioned previously top-seed Thiem cannot be discounted this week as at his best he could stroll through to the final. However, the past statistics and record of the top-seed over the last decade are for me to significant to ignore, and at the prices I’m happy to oppose the young Austrian on this occasion. From a seeded player perspective fifth seed Kohlschreiber (22/1) is usually a proven performer on home soil, his best results have been on clay winning four ATP tournaments at Munich (3), Dusseldorf once and he also reached the semi-finals at Hamburg in 2017 and 2014.

There’s one unseeded player who has caught my eye this year and last week, which is Lajovic (22/1), who made the transition from grass to clay well after reaching the quarter finals at Umag last week, eventually losing to Pella from Argentina. He does have a tricky opener against eighth seed and Bastad semi-finalist Verdasco, but he leads the head-to-head 3-1 and with winning form against most of the main dangers in his half of the draw he’s worth siding with at a decent price. Finally, the unseeded Monfils (11/1) form has been improving steadily over the last few months and he could be hitting top-form again soon. If he stays fit, he could have a strong end to the 2018 season and If he can produce anywhere near his best form this week, he’s more than capable of challenging for the title because he has winning form against most of the main dangers in his half of the draw. He does face a tough opener against sixth seed Cecchinato, this is their first meeting on the ATP Tour and I think Monfils has the advantage on this occasion as Cecchinato’s motivation and focus may not be 100% after winning the Umag title yesterday.

The Swiss Open in Gstaad is played at altitude and judging by past winners it takes an experienced clay courter to be able to handle the tight courts and quicker conditions. The top-two seeds have a poor record at Gstaad, the top-seed won one of the last ten titles (last Fognini 2017) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Goffin 2015), which does not bode well for Bastad winner and reigning champion Fognini’s chances this week, especially because he may not be as motivated as last week after winning the title and celebrating the win yesterday. The second seed’s record is also poor winning one of the last ten titles (last Almagro 2010) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Bautista Aguts chances this week.

However, the Spanish number two should still be respected given his record at this level on the ATP Tour having won eight career titles, including his only one on clay in Germany at Stuttgart, and he also reached six ATP finals. There’s the concern he doesn’t challenge for and win more clay court titles and he does seem to prefer hard courts and faster conditions, which he will get this week with the ball flying quicker than at sea-level. Seeded players in general have a better record at Gstaad over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than eight won six of the last ten titles (last Fognini 2017) and a player seeded no higher than seven was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Lopez 2015). Unseeded players have a decent record at Gstaad winning four of the last ten titles (last Andujar 2014) and they were a losing finalist five times during this period (last Hanfmann 2017).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player from three to eight or an unseeded player including Wild Cards, Qualifiers and Lucky Loser. European players won eight of the last ten titles (Bellucci from Brazil won the other two) and the first player who stands out from the top-half of the draw is sixth seed J Sousa (16/1) from Portugal. He’s a proven performer at this level on clay in Europe, he won his first ATP clay title on home soil at Estoril this year and prior to this he’d been knocking on the door, reaching four European clay finals between 2014 and 2017 at Bastad, Geneva, Umag and Kitzbuhel last year, which has similar conditions to Gstaad.

His section of the top-half of the door on paper looks winnable with two Wild Cards, three qualifiers and top-seed Fognini, who may not be 100% focussed on winning this match after winning the Bastad title yesterday. Sousa also has winning form against all the main dangers from the top-half of the draw and if he can reproduce his Estoril form this week, he will have a good chance of challenging for the title.

As unseeded players have a good record at Gstaad its worth highlighting a player who could potentially spring a surprise at big odds this week. Spaniard Carballes Baena (50/1) is a red dirt grinder who won his first ATP Tour title earlier this season at Quito, which like Gstaad is played at altitude. The quick conditions at Gstaad should play to his strengths, he’s won twenty of this thirty six matches on clay this season and on his day he’s more than capable of competing for a title of this stature.

Atlanta heralds the start of the North America hard court and US Open Series swing, which includes two Masters 1000 Series tournaments at Cincinnati and Toronto, Canada, for the Rogers Cup, that alternates between Toronto and Montreal each year. American players have dominated the Atlanta title, winning seven of the last eight titles, and Australian Kyrgios upset the trend in 2016 beating defending champion Isner in the final, but Isner regained normal duty in 2017 winning his fourth Atlanta title overall.

The top two seeds have an average record at Atlanta and the top-seed has won one of the last seven tiles (last Isner 2015) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Isner’s chances of winning a fifth title this week. However, Isner has bucked this trend before, he clearly loves playing at this tournament having won four titles and he also made six of the nine finals, so definitely cannot be discounted this week.

The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Isner 2017) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (last Berdych 2012), which does not bode well for Aussie and 2016 champion Kyrgios chances this year. Seeded players in general have a very strong record and a player seeded no higher than nine won the last eight titles and a player seeded no higher than fifteen was a losing finalist five times during this period (last R Harrison 2017). An unseeded player has never won the title and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last 2014 Janowicz).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player from three to eight or an unseeded player including Wild Cards, Qualifiers and Lucky Loser. I’m happy to oppose Isner after his Wimbledon exploits because I’m not confident he will have fully recovered from the physical and mental exertions and agonisingly just missing out on reaching his first Grand Slam final. Fifth seed American Tiafoe (10/1) is the leading NextGen star from the USA, he won his first ATP title on home soil on hard courts at Delray Beach earlier this year and if he can reproduce that level of form this week he should be able to mount a serious challenge for the title.

As unseeded players, Americans and big servers and hitters have experienced some success at Atlanta. I’ll highlight a couple who I think could potentially go well this week and spring a surprise at big odds. NextGen star Taylor Fritz (18/1) usually plays his best tennis on home soil and hard courts, he should welcome the return to home soil and familiar conditions after a long European clay and grass swing. He has been very consistent on hard courts over the last two seasons winning 42 of his 64 matches on the surface, his big serve and ground strokes will suit the quick conditions and with a history of similar style players from America winning the tournament, this could be the time for the talented young Fritz to make the breakthrough and win his first ATP title.

From a first round match betting perspective there’s a few matches that stood out and hopefully they will do better than most of last week’s selections. At Hamburg veteran Simon looks too short against Lucky Loser Monteiro. Montiero is match tough having played on clay through the grass swing, he leads the head-to-head 1-0 beating Simon at Gstaad in straight sets back in 2016 and this is Simon’s first match on clay since the French Open, which means he could be a bit rusty compared to Monteiro, and that might just be the edge the young Brazilian needs to take this one. Fourth seed Dzhumur has a tricky first round encounter against qualifier Kovalic, who leads the head-to-head 2-1, and it includes a win on clay. He also has the advantage of being match tough on clay having played on the surface throughout the recent grass swing, and with clay not being Dzhumur’s best surface, he could easily lose his opening match for the second week in a row, like at Umag last week against Donskoy.

Veteran Ferrer is a shadow of the former top-ten player and while he is admirably keeps fighting on trying to rediscover better form, his efforts are not producing good results, and he is losing more and more matches against lower ranked and less talented players. He faces a tricky opener against German teenage NextGen potential star and Wild Card Molleker and he’s recorded some good results on clay of late winning the Heilbronn Challenger in Germany, match wins against talented and more experienced pro’s like Vesely and compatriots Hanfmann and Struff. He will draw strength and motivation from the home crowd, and if he can keep playing like he has been, there’s every chance he may cause the upset today and against an out of form Ferrer.

At Gstaad veteran Lorenzi faces Umag finalist Pella and I’m willing to give the veteran Italian, who let us down last week, another chance as he might have a better advantage on this occasion. Pella may not be 100% prepared and focussed to win this one after the disappointment of losing the Umag final yesterday and Lorenzi leads the head-to-head 2-1, which means he knows how to beat him and he’ll hopefully repeat that past success and deliver for us on this occasion.

Tournament Selections:

Hamburg

Kohlschreiber EW (22/1)

Monfils WIN (11/1)

Lajovic EW (22/1)

Gstaad

J Sousa WIN (16/1)

Carballes Baena EW (50/1

Atlanta

Tiafoe WIN (10/1)

Fritz EW (18/1)

Match betting