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  • Chris Sobey

Tennis


Before I move on to this week’s ATP Tour tennis action I’ll provide a quick rundown of last week. It was a great week for the outright tennis tournament selections as I predicted both Kitzbuhel finalists, veterans Dennis Istomin (advised 33/1) and Martin Klizan (advised 25/1). To make the feat even more impressive was the fact both players were qualifiers and this was only the second time two qualifiers had contested an ATP Tour final since the inception of the ATP Tour proper in 1990. Klizan went on to win Sunday’s final in easy fashion 6-2 6-2, it was his sixth ATP Tour title win, four of which came on clay. The total profit for Klizan and Istomin to a level one point stake was 40.5 points profit to advised prices.

At the ATP 500 Washington DC tournament it was good to seed the NextGen dominating things for a change and yesterday’s final between defending champion, 21 year old Sascha Zverev and the unseeded 19 year old Aussie NextGen sensation Alex De Minaur UPDATE FINAL RESULT. At Los Cabos the good record of seeded players continued as top-seed Del Potro and second seed Fognini contested Sunday’s final and Fognini recorded a big upset beating the world number four in straight sets to land the first hard court title of his career.

On to this week’s ATP Tennis action and the tour visits Toronto, Canada for the Rogers Cup Masters 1000 series. The tournament has been dominated by the world’s elite players over the last decade, Djokovic (3), Murray (3) and Nadal (2) winning eight of the last ten titles. Tsonga seeded thirteen and last year fourth seed Sascha Zverev were the two other players to win the title during this period. World number two Roger Federer announced his withdrawal from this year’s tournament but there is still a world class line up to enjoy. World number one and two time Rogers Cup winner Nadal, 2018 Wimbledon winner and three time Rogers Cup winner Djokovic, three time Rogers Cup winner, defending champion and world number three Sascha Zverev, world number four Del Potro and 2018 Wimbledon finalist and world number five Kevin Anderson, to name but a few.

The top two seeds have performed reasonably well at the Rogers Cup over the last decade; the top-seed won three of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2016) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Djokovic 2015). The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Murray 2015) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Federer 2017). Seeded players in general also have a very strong record at the Rogers Cup. A player seeded no higher than thirteen won the last ten titles, a player seeded no higher than four won nine of the last ten titles and a seeded player no higher than fourteen was a losing finalist the last ten finals. Only one unseeded player has reached the Rogers Cup final over the last decade, which was back in 2008.

From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player no higher than fourteen and in terms of finding the winner the best strategy looks to be siding with a player seeded no higher than four. Players who fit the profile and who I believe will perform well this week are third seed and 2009 finalist Del Potro, second seed and defending champion Sascha Zverev and ninth seed and four time winner Djokovic. Of the three ninth seed Djokovic (4/1) appeals the most now he’s proven he’s back to his best winning Wimbledon and because he’s got a great record in Canada winning four titles.

From a first round match betting perspective there’s a few matches I like that will hopefully return a profit. Raonic and Mannarino both have winning head-to-head records against their respective first round opponents Goffin and Querrey and both are playing well at enough at present to continue their winning records again. The experienced Dzhumur also has a winning record against the talented NextGen star Tsitsipas and the Serbian represents decent value to cause the upset on this occasion.

Selections:

Tournament

Djokovic Win (4/1)

Match betting

Double (3.94)

Raonic to beat Goffin

Mannarino to beat Querrey

Dzhumur to beat Tsitsipas (23/15)


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