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Chris Sobey

Before I move on to this week’s ATP Tour tennis action, I’ll provide a quick rundown of last week’s action, starting with Montpellier where it was an all French affair in the final between Wild Card veteran Tsonga who beat compatriot Herbert 6-4 6-2. At Sofia Medvedev (advised 7/1) won the title beating Fucsovics in Sundays final 6-4 6-3, the final in Cordoba was an all Argentinian affair between Pella and Londero and at the time of writing the final was due to be played late Sunday evening.

On to this week’s ATP action and there are three ATP tournaments to focus on again this week. We have the first ATP 500 event of the season, which is the traditional indoor tournament in Rotterdam, and two ATP 250 events. The first is a new indoors tournament in New York, which replaces Memphis, and finally, the continuation of the Golden Cay Swing in South America at Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Roger Federer does not return to defend his Rotterdam title this year, top seed Nishikori is the only top-ten player in the field and world number eleven Khachanov is the second seed this week. The top-seed does not have the best record at Rotterdam winning four of the last ten titles (last Federer 2018) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for top-seed Nishikori’s chances this week. The second seed also has a poor record at Rotterdam and has only won one of the last ten titles (last 2013) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Dimitrov 2018), which does not bode well for Khachanov’s chances this week.

Seeded players have a strong record at Rotterdam and player seeded no higher than six has won nine of the last ten titles (last Federer 2018) and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist eight times during this period (last Dimitrov 2018). Unseeded players don’t have a great record at Rotterdam over the last decade winning one of the last ten title (last Klizan 2016) and they were a losing finalist two of the last ten finals (last Cilic 2014). From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with either the top-seed, or a player seeded no higher than eight. I’ll keep things simple this year and I’m avoiding top seed Nishikori as he usually has some injury issue going on and instead, I’ll opt for 2015 semi-finalist and fourth seed Raonic (advised 6/1).

North America hosts its first ATP tournament of the season this week and it’s a new indoor tournament held in Long Island, New York, which replaces the long running indoor tournament at Memphis. As New York is a new tournament and because it has no historical statistical data to help analyse the draw I will use the 10-year statistical data from Memphis as the indoor conditions should produce similar form and results as New York. Defending champion Anderson does not return to defend his title due to injury while 2018 finalist Querrey who is seeded six this year does return for a shot at going one better and winning the title this week.

The top-seed has a great record winning seven of the last ten titles (last Anderson 2018) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which bodes well for top seed Isner’s chances this week. The second seed has a poor record and they’ve never won the title over the last decade and they were a losing finalist twice during this period, which does not bode well for Tiafoe’s chances this week.

Seeded players in general do have a good record and a player seeded no higher than eight won nine of the last ten titles (last Anderson 2018) and a player seeded no higher than six was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Querrey 2018). Unseeded players have a good record over the last decade having won one of the last ten titles (last Harrison 2017) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Basilashvili 2017). From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with either the top seed, a player seeded no higher than eight and an unseeded player. Players who fit this bill and have a good chance of winning the title this year are fifth seed Mannarino (25/1), sixth seed Querrey (11/1) and 2017 winner Harrison (20/1) who is unseeded this year.

Moving onto the remaining tournament this week and the top-seed has a good record at Buenos Aires winning six of the last ten titles (last Thiem 2018) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Nishikori 2017), which bodes well for Thiem’s chances this week. The second seed does not have such a good record winning only one of the last ten titles (Ferrero 2010) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last 2014), which does not bode well for Fognini’s chances this week.

Seeded players in general have a strong record at Buenos Aires and a player seeded no higher than five has won nine of the last ten titles and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist six times during this period (last Nishikori 2017). An unseeded player has won one of the last ten titles (last Thiem 2018) over the last decade and they were a losing finalist four times during this period (last Bedene 2018). From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with the top seed, or a seeded player no higher than eight or an unseeded player. Defending champion Thiem (6/5) is worth siding with again as it’s not a strong field and from the bottom half of the draw the unseeded Delbonis (20/1) reached the semi’s at Cordoba last week and if he can reproduce that level of form this week, he should go close to reaching the final on Sunday.

Selections:

Tournament

Rotterdam

Raonic Win (6/1)

New York

Querrey Win (11/1)

Harrison Win (20/1)

Mannarino EW (25/1)

Buenos Aires

Thiem Win (6/5)

Delbonis EW (20/1)


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