The first ATP Tour Masters 1000 Series of the 2019 season go underway yesterday in Indian Wells, California and like the majority of previous Masters 1000 Series they’ve been dominated by the big three of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal who have won thirteen titles between them over the last fifteen years or so. Over the last decade top-seed Djokovic has experienced the most success winning four titles since 2009, Federer and Nadal won two apiece during this period.
Outside the big three only two other players have won Indian Wells over the last decade, Ljubicic in 2011 and reigning champion Del Potro won his first ever Masters 1000 Series beating top-seed Federer in the final, who was going for a record sixth in total. However, it’s unlikely Del Potro will repeat that success in 2019 as he only returned to the main tour a fortnight ago due to ongoing injury issues.
Top seed and five-time Indian Wells winner Djokovic is playing his first tournament since winning a sixth Australian Open and not surprisingly is the clear favorite to win a record sixth title next weekend. He’s also benefited from avoiding second seed Nadal and fourth seed Federer, who both reside in the bottom half of the draw. if Djokovic can navigate the first quarter with some potentially tricky matches against the likes of in-form players Monfils seeded 18, eleventh seed Coric, seventeenth seed Basilashvili and fifteenth seed Cecchinato he looks like a safe bet to reach the final as the majority of top players in the Second Quarter like third seed Zverev, fifth seed Anderson and ninth seed Tsitsipas are either struggling with injuries and/or confidence.
Past statistics point to a low seeded player winning this years title, most likely one of the big three, but if this trend is bucked like last year a player seeded it’s probably goin to be a player ranked in the top-20 and there’s only two players who stand out as potential challengers in my opinion who both reside in the Fourth Quarter. Eighth seed Isner (100/1) warmed up well for Indian Wells reaching the semi-finals at Delray Beach and Acapulco and if he repeats that form and the form that won him Miami this time last year he could spring a big surprise again. Fifteenth seed Russian Medvedev (75/1) has been one of the biggest NextGen improvers over the last couple of seasons. He’s started the 2019 season well and if he continues to improve at his current rate he should be challenging for Masters 1000 Series which will hopefully come to fruition this year.
