The second ATP Masters 1000 Series of the season at Miami gets underway on Thursday and six-time winner Djokovic lines up ass the top-seed after his shock early exit at Indian Wells. Second seed, 2018 finalist and three-time Master’s 1000 Series winner Sascha Zverev lines-up after his shock early exit at Indian Wells and will be hoping for better results this time after a disappointing start to 2019. Third-seed and Indian Wells winner Thiem will be full of confidence after landing his first Masters 1000 Series title and beating the great Roger Federer in the final lines-up for a shot at winning back-to-back Masters 1000 Series titles. Fourth seed and three-time Miami winner Federer lines-up and will be in confident mood after making the Indian Wells final, defending champion and seventh seed Isner returns for a shot at winning a second Masters 1000 Series title but Indian Wells semi-finalist Nadal doesn’t play due to re-occurring knee injury issues.
The top two seeds have performed quite well at Miami over the last decade and the top-seed won three of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2016) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Nadal 2014). The second seed has also won three of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2014) but they were never a losing finalist during this period. Seeded players in general have dominated the tournament over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than fourteen has won the last ten titles (last Isner 2018), the other nine winners were seeded no higher than six and a player seeded no higher than sixteen was a losing finalist the last ten finals and the other nine were seeded no higher than six.
From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest a player seeded inside the top-ten is most likely going to win and reach the final but players inside the top-twenty should be respected as well after Isner winning last year. Djokovic is the tournament favourite, and many will be more reluctant to back him heavily after his early exit at Indian Wells, however, he should be better prepared on this occasion as Indian Wells was his first competitive competition since winning the Australian Open and for that reason, I’m not confident of opposing him at least reaching the final. Instead I’ll opt for a few top-ten seeds from the bottom half of the draw and as he reached the Acapulco before Indian Wells and the 2018 Miami final, I’ll forgive second seed Zverev (14/1) his early Indian Wells exit and back him to perform much better on this occasion. Eighth seed Tsitsipas (40/1) also disappointed at Indian Wells but did reach the Dubai final prior to this and hopefully he’ll produce that level of performance on this occasion. Finally, thirteenth seed Medvedev (80/1) is one of the top NextGen players at present, hard courts are his best surface and the conditions in Miami should suit his aggressive style of play perfectly and as a result he looks overpriced.
Zverev Win (14/1)
Tsitsipas Win (40/1)
Medvedev Win (80/1