I don’t think I’ve ever said this in one of my blogs before and while it’s a bit corny i can’t resist and I’m going to say it anyway as I think it deserves the recognition! QUADRUPLE BOOM! Yes, that’s right quadruple because I didn’t just tip two finalists for one tournament on this occasion, but I went one better and tipped all four finalists at Barcelona and Budapest this week.
At Barcelona I tipped the winner third seed Thiem (10/1) who knocked out reigning eleven-time champion and hot favourite Nadal in the semi-finals, which was Nadal’s first ever semi defeat at this tournament. I also advised seventh seed Medvedev (25/1) who reached his first ATP 500 final knocking out two-time previous winner and fourth seed Nishikori in his semi-final, all of which guaranteed excellent profits on the week.
Not to be outdone I achieved the same at Budapest advising the eventual winner the unseeded Italian Berrettini (25/1) on Monday and on Wednesday via my Tennis article I advised qualifier Krajinovic (18/1) as a back up and they both did the business reaching Sunday’s final and guaranteed more excellent profits on the week.
If you backed the selections at best advised prices and level stakes it would have returned a 10/1 and 25/1 winner so an excellent 35 points profit. If you backed the bigger priced selections i.e. above 10/1 each way to level stakes the returns would have been even bigger around 53 points profit. Not bad after a 50/1 finalist last week as well and I hope your faith in me as a proven long-term successful tennis tipster is still respected after last year’s huge returns but a shaky start to the first few months of this year.
On to this week’s ATP action and there are two European clay court events at Munich, Germany and Estoril, Portugal while the new tournament at Istanbul, Turkey that’s been going for a few seasons has been discontinued. At Munich defending champion and top-seed this week Sasha Zverev lines up for a shot at winning a third straight title but the omens don’t look good given his form so far this year. Munich has been dominated by northern European players over the last decade, a Spanish player has not won the title for 21 years and German players have a great record reaching eight of the last ten finals, winning five titles during this period.
The top two-seeds don’t have a great record at Munich over the last decade and the top-seed has won two of the last ten titles during this period (Last Zverev 2018) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Cilic 2014), which does not bode well for defending champion Sasha Zverev’s chances this week. The second seed has performed even worse during this period winning only one of the last ten titles (last Youhzny 2010) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Wild Card second seed Khachanov’s chances this week.
Seeded players in general have a good record at Munich over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than seven won nine of the last ten titles (last Zverev 2018) and a player seeded no higher than six was a losing finalist eight times during this period (last Thiem 2016). Unseeded players don’t have a great record at Munich over the last decade winning two of the last ten titles (Last Qualifier Klizan 2014) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Qualifier Pella 2017).
From an outright tournament betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player from one to six from Germany and/or northern Europe and it’s worth considering an in-form unseeded player as ATP 250 events can easily throw up surprise winners and finalists from time to time. From the top half of the draw I think it’s worth opposing top-seed Zverev given his form so far this year and compatriot Struff (25/1) who is unseeded this week could also be the one to capitalise if Zverev flops again as Struff he’s been in good form so far this year, showing signs he’s ready to reach and contest his first ATP final. And hopefully home support will spur him on further to achieve this.
From the bottom half of the draw I’ll also side with unseeded German veteran Kohlschreiber (22/1) as he’s won this tournament twice over the last decade and he’s usually a tough player to beat at this tournament and on home soil.
Moving on to Estoril, Portugal and home hope and defending champion J Sousa who is unseeded this week returns to defend his title as does 2017 and seventh seed this week Carreno-Busta. The top-seed has a quite a good record at Estoril winning three of the last ten titles (last Carreno-Busta 2017) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period in this period (last 2014), which bodes well for Tsitsipas’ chances this week. The second seed has not performed as well over the last decade winning one of the last ten titles (last 2013) and they were a losing finalist three times during this period (last 2012), which does not bode well for Monte Carlo Masters Winner Fognin’s chances this week.
Seeded players in general have a good record at Estoril over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than eight won eight of the last ten titles (last A Zverev 2018) and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist nine times during this period (last Muller 2017). Unseeded players don’t have a great record at Estoril over the last decade winning two of the last ten titles (last Almagro 2016) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist once during this period (2010).
From a tournament outright betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player, either the top seed or a player seeded from three to eight and an in-form unseeded player as ATP250 tournaments throw up more surprise winners and upsets. As the top-seed has a good record at Estoril over the last decade I’ll go with Tsitsipas (3/1) to win his first ATP clay title which he’s more than capable of doing if he produces his best tennis all week.
I’ll also opt for fifth seed and Monte Carlo Masters 1000 Series finalist Lajovic (14/1) as if he produces that level of form this week, he should go close to winning his first ATP title. I’ll also opt for an unseeded but experienced outsider from the bottom half of the draw and I think Chardy from France could spring a surprise this week and make a surprise run to the final at least as he’s been in decent enough form this year and has won an ATP title on clay at Stuttgart so clearly knows how to win on the surface.
Selections:
Tournament
Munich
Struff Win (25/1)
Kohlschreiber Win (22/1)
Estoril
Tsitsipas Win (3/1)
Lajovic Win (14/1)
Chardy Win (3/1)
Match betting
None
