Before I move on to next week’s ATP Tour action, I’ll provide a quick rundown on last week. The impressive Berrettini from Italy who won his second ATP Tour title at Budapest last week nearly achieved the rare feat of winning back-to-back titles reaching the final at Munich but having to play his delayed semi-final and final in the same day probably scuppered his chances and he lost to the impressive up and coming Garin from Chile who finally delivered on his potential this year winning the first ATP Tour title of his fledgling career.
There was success at Estoril for the KSTips Tennis blog as I managed to tip both finalists top-seed Tsitsipas (10/3) who won his first title of the season against the unseeded veteran Cuevas (20/1) in the final to land his first title of the season and third in total
On to this week’s action and it’s the second ATP Masters 1000 Series clay tournament of the season, which is played in Madrid at the futuristic Caja Magica and the tournament is renowned for its quick conditions due to the high altitude of Madrid. The tournament has been dominated by the big four Djokovic (1), Nadal (4), Federer (2), and Murray (2) over the last decade but NextGen star Sascha Zverev ended that domination last year along with Thiem who reached the final.
Looking at past statistics over the last decade and the top-seed has only won one of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2016) and they were a losing finalist three times during this period (last Nadal 2011), which does not bode well for world number one Djokovic who has been struggling since winning the Australian Open. The second seed has a better record at Madrid winning four of the last ten titles (last Murray 2015) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Murray 2017) which could bode well for Nadal’s chances this week and the faster conditions and shorter rallies could make life easier for him as well but his form so far this clay court season suggests otherwise. Seeded players, in general, have dominated Madrid over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than five won the last ten titles (last A Zverev 2018) and a player seeded no higher than fifteen was a losing finalist the last ten renewals (last Thiem eight 2017). Unseeded players have never won the title at Madrid over the last decade and they were a losing finalist once during this period (2008).
From a Betting perspective, the statistics over the last decade suggest a seeded player from two to five have the best chance of winning and/or a seeded player no higher than fifteen winning or reaching the final. Fifth seed Thiem (6/1) stands out on recent form and has recent experience of reaching the final last year. Sixth seed Nishikori (33/1)is a former finalist, he has some recent form having reached the semi-finals at the Barcelona ATP 500 last month and he will like the quicker conditions but the one negative is he’s prone to injuries so you can never be 100% confident when backing. Finally, Twelfth Seed Medvedev (50/1) must be respected as well on current form as he reached the semi-finals at the Monte Carlo Masters 1000 Series semi-finals and the Barcelona ATP 500 final beating sixth seed Nishikori in a tight three set encounter.
Thime Win @ (6/1)
Nishikori Win (40/1)
Medvedev EW (40/1)
Win Double @3.08
Goffin Win vs Fucsovcis
Johnson Win vs. Millman