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  • Chris Sobey

Tennis


Before I move on to my 2019 Wimbledon preview, I’ll just give a quick update on last week’s ATP Tour grass court action at Eastbourne and Antalya and how the top five seeds got on at the two ATP tournaments and the WTA event at Eastbourne and Antalya. It was close but no cigar with last week’s tennis selections as third seed Thompson (advised 8/1) lost a nail-biter of a semi-final against Serb NextGen potential star Kecmanovic 6-7 7-6 7-6 at Antalya and Querrey (advised 25/1) went a step closer losing the Eastbourne final against compatriot Fritz 6-3 6-4.

It’s time to wrap up my ATP and WTA top five seeds grass court system (opposing all top five seeds at each ATP and WTA grass court tournaments except when the player is a main selection and/or a top five seed plays another top five seed) for another year and last week at the ATP and WTA tournaments at Eastbourne and Antalya the system made four points profit to best prices and overall this year the system returned a healthy profit of approximately thirty points all to a level 1 point stake.

On to this week’s action and Wimbledon is the third and most prestigious of the Grand Slams, which brings together the elite of the game for two weeks of top-class tennis action at SW19. The worlds current top three, who are all taking part this year Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, have won eight of the last ten titles between them.

Nine-time winner and second-seed Federer will aim to win an unprecedented tenth Wimbledon title and break his own record of becoming the oldest ever winner in the modern era at the age of thirty seven. Top-seed and this year’s favourite, defending champion Djokovic, will aim to win back-to-back titles for the second time and his fifth in total while third seed Nadal will aim to land a third Wimbledon title.

The top two seeds have performed well over the last decade; the top seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2015) and they were a losing finalist three times during this period (last Djokovic 2013). The second seed has an even stronger record having won six of the last ten titles over the last decade (last Murray 2016) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (last Federer 2015).

Seeded players have dominated the tournament over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than twelve won the last ten titles and a player seeded no higher than three won nine of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2018). A seeded player no higher than twelve contested the last ten finals and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist nine of the last ten seasons (last Anderson 2018).

The title has been won by the number one or two seed seven times over the last decade and the other three years it was won by the third seed (Federer in 2017 and Federer 2012 and once by twelfth seed Djokovic in 2018). Top seed and defending champion Djokovic is the tournament winner favourite, but he’s opted not to play any grass court warm up tournaments this year, while second seed and tournament second favourite Federer arrives with perfect preparations again having won the title in Halle for a record tenth time, but he’s landed a potentially tougher draw on paper with third seed Nadal in the bottom half of the draw.

From an outright tournament winner betting perspective, current form and past statistics suggest the winner will be seeded three or below and a player seeded no higher than twelve has a good chance of winning the title and/or reaching the final a week on Sunday.

One of the big questions for this year’s men’s Wimbledon is will the old guard and top three dominate proceedings again or will another top ten player including the NextGen elite step-up and win a coveted first Grand Slam and Wimbledon title. Hopefully, there will be a good mix of both contending the latter stages next week and it would be even better if one from each era will contest the final next Sunday.


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