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  • Chris Sobey

Tennis


Before I move on to this week’s ATP Tour tennis action, I’ll provide a quick run-down of last week’s action at Bastad, Umag and Newport and how my tournament winner selections got on. While I tipped Umag winner Lajovic (advised @ 12/1) it was a case of close but no cigar with this week’s selections as there were two quarter finalists, a semi-finalist and title winner, which returned a small profit on the week to best prices.

Talented Chilean Jarry delivered on his promise and potential by winning his first ATP Tour title at Bastad yesterday, beating another talented clay courter from South America Londero from Argentina in straight sets. John Isner bounced back to form last week by winning his fourth ATP Tour Newport title and he will attempt to win back-to-back Newport and Atlanta titles for the second time this week.

On to this week’s ATP tennis action and it’s a busy week again with three tournaments, including the prestigious ATP 500 clay court event at Hamburg. There’s another clay court event in the beautiful town of Gstaad in the Swiss Alps and the start of the North American hard court and the US Open Series swing in Atlanta, which leads up to the final Grand Slam of the season, the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

The ATP 500 Hamburg tournament has been dominated by European players over the last decade, they’ve won seven of the last ten titles and the other three were won by South Americans Juan Monaco and Leonardo Mayer both from Argentina. Mayer has a great record at Hamburg having won two titles in 2014 and 2017 and he was also a losing finalist in 2018.

This year’s tournament has attracted a decent field with defending champion and fourth seed Basilashvili returning to defend the title he won as a qualifier last year. Top seed and multiple clay court title winner Thiem will aim to win his first Hamburg title as will multiple ATP Tour title winner and second seed Alexander Zverev. Third seed and 2013 winner Fognini will aim to bounce back from an injury that caused him to retire at Umag last week and Umag semi-finalist and sixth seed Djere will aim to go one better this week and reach his second ATP Tour final.

The top two seeds don’t have a great record at Hamburg, the top seed has only won one of the last ten titles (last Nadal 2015) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (last Ferrer 2014), which does not bode well for Thiem’s chances. The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Davydenko 2009) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Alexander Zverev’s chances this week.

Seeded players overall have a good record at Hamburg and a player seeded no higher than twelve has won six of the last ten titles (last Klizan 2016) and a player seeded no higher than thirteen was a losing finalist six times during this period (last Cuevas 2016). Unseeded players have a good record at Hamburg over the last decade, winning three of the last ten titles (last Basilashvili 2018) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist three times during this period (last L Mayer 2018).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with an experienced proven clay courter seeded from three to eight and an unseeded player or two as they’ve experienced success over the last decade, especially the last two seasons when the finals were contested by all unseeded players. You Can find out who I’m tipping to win this year’s title via the Tennis Pay Pal buttons.

The Swiss Open in Gstaad is played at altitude and judging by past winners it suits talented, big serving and hitting clay courters due to the quicker conditions and Europeans have experienced the most success over the last decade winning eight of the last ten titles. While defending champion Berrettini does not return to defend his title Gstaad has still attracted a competitive field. Top seed and 2018 finalist Bautista Agut play’s for the first time since reaching his first Grand Slam semi-final at Wimbledon and compatriot and second seed Verdasco will aim to improve on his early exit at Bastad last week. Third seed and Umag winner Lajovic will also aim to continue his good form this week.

The top-two seeds have a poor record at Gstaad and the top-seed won one of the last ten titles (last Lopez 2016) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Goffin 2015), which does not bode well for 2018 finalist Bautista Agut’s chances this week. The second seed’s record is also poor winning one of the last ten titles (last Almagro 2010) and they were a losing finalist once during this period, which does not bode well for Verdasco’s chances this week.

Seeded players overall have a better record at Gstaad over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than eight won six of the last ten titles (last Fognini 2017) and a player seeded no higher than seven was a losing finalist five times during this period (last Bautista Agut 2018). Unseeded players have a decent record at Gstaad winning four of the last ten titles (last Berrettini 2018) and they were a losing finalist five times during this period (last Hanfmann 2017).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded or unseeded player who is a proven big hitting and serving clay courter who can cope with playing at altitude. You Can find out who I’m tipping to win this year’s title via the Tennis Pay Pal buttons.

Atlanta heralds the start of the North America hard court and US Open Series swing, which includes two Master’s 1000 Series tournaments at Cincinnati and Toronto, Canada, for the Rogers Cup, that alternates between Toronto and Montreal each year. American players have dominated the Atlanta title, winning eight of the last nine. 2019 top seed John Isner loves this tournament having won a record five titles and he’s contested eight of the last nine finals. He has also reached six finals in a row and will aim to extend his record this year and make it seven.

Second seed Fritz won his first ATP Tour tile at Eastbourne recently and will aim to continue his good summer form this week. Third seed 20-year-old Aussie De Minaur produces his best form on hard courts having already won a title at Sydney this year, he also reached two ATP Tour hard court finals at Washington and Sydney and fifth seed American Tiafoe will hope to build some form on hard courts in the build up to his home slam the US open. Eighth seed Humbert aged twenty one will aim to continue his great summer form and reach his first ATP Tour final this week and Newport semi-finalist Bublik aged twenty two will also aim to continue his recent good form and he could face Isner for the second time in two weeks if he wins his first round match against Opelka.

The top two seeds have a good record at Atlanta and the top seed has won five of the last nine tiles (last Isner 2018) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Isner 2016). The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Isner 2017) and they were a losing finalist three times during this period (Anderson 2013). Seeded players overall have a very strong record and a player seeded no higher than six won the last nine titles and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist seven times during this period (last Harrison 2018). Unseeded players have a poor record at Atlanta, they’ve never won the title and they were a losing finalist only once during this period (Sela 2014).

From a tournament winner betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with an experienced American seeded player who has proven form on hard courts and preferably in the USA.

There ARE Tennis tips today.


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