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  • Chris Sobey

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Close but no cigar again for last week’s tennis tournament selections as Andujar (advised @ 18/1) lost his semi-final at Gstaad against compatriot Ramos-Vinolas 7-6 6-4. Andujar did serve for the first set and was a break up in the second, but he was broken straight back on both occasions. This follows tipping four ATP finalists in a row, Goffin at Halle @ 28/1, Querrey at Eastbourne @ 25/1, Federer at Wimbledon @ 4/1 and Lajovic at Umag @ 12/1 with only one winner at Umag. If fortunes had been more favourable during this period and all four won, then the returns would have been significantly more!

At the time of writing Fritz (advised @ 7/2 Friday) was due to face De Minaur in a NextGen final at Atlanta, defending champion Basilashvili produced his best tennis of the season so far to defend his ATP 500 Hamburg title beating NextGen Russian Rublev in yesterday’s final, who also produced his best tennis of the season to reach his first final of the season. The Gstaad final between Spanish veteran Ramos-Vinolas and German journeyman Stebe, who has been one of the unluckiest players on tour due to multiple serious injuries throughout his career, was delayed due to bad weather yesterday.

On to this week’s ATP Tour action and it’s a busy week again with three ATP tournaments taking place in North and South America and Europe. The US Open Series Hard Court swing continues in Washington DC, USA and Los Cabos, Mexico and in Europe the clay-court season comes to an end over in Kitzbuhel, Austria.

I’ll kick things off in North America at Washington, which is an ATP 500 event, and unless he takes and/or accepts a late Wild Card defending and two-time champion Alexander Zverev will not line up to defend his title and chance to make it three in a row. If Zverev does not take part the tournament has still attracted a strong field with three top ten stars taking part; top seed Tsitsipas, second seed Khachanov and third seed Medvedev and three top twenty stars, fourth seed Anderson, fifth seed Isner and sixth seed Cilic.

Surprisingly, there’s been no American winner over the last decade and only three finalists during this period (Roddick 2009 and Isner 2013 and 2015). Europeans players have performed well at this tournament over the last decade winning five of the last ten titles including Zverev winning the last two. Players from Argentina won three of the last ten titles, Del Potro won two of these titles (2009 and 2013) and the other two titles were won by Raonic from Canada 2014 and Nishikori from Japan 2015.

The top seed doesn’t have a great record over the last decade winning only two of the last ten titles (last Zverev 2018) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Monfils 2011), which doesn’t bode well for Tsitsipas’s chances this week. The second seed has a much better record over the last decade winning five of the last ten titles (last Monfils 2016), but they were never a losing finalist during this period, which bodes well for Khachanov’s chances this week.

Seeded players overall have a strong record at Washington and a player seeded no higher than five won eight of the last ten titles (last A Zverev 2018) and a player seeded no higher than fifteen was a losing finalist nine times during this period (last Anderson 2017). Unseeded players don’t have a great record at Washington over the last decade winning two of the last ten titles (last De Minaur 2018) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (De Minaur 2018).

From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player no higher than fifteen to win the title and/or to make the final and to find out who I’m tipping this week you can access them via the Tennis PayPal buttons.

Moving on to the final clay-court tournament of the season over in Kitzbuhel, Austria and while it’s a competitive clay court field it understandably has not attracted world-class one with the focus now switching to the hard courts in America’s. Top seed and home hope Thiem is the only top ten- or twenty-star taking part but defending champion Klizan lines up to defend his title. There are four other winners of this title in this year’s field, veterans Kohlschreiber (2015 and 2017), Haase (2012 and 2011), Lorenzi (2016) and Seppi (2010), which should ensure a competitive competition again this year.

The top seed has a poor record at Kitzbuhel having never won the title over the last decade and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Kohlschreiber 2012), which does not bode well for Thiem’s chances this week. The second seed has an identical record to the top seed over the last decade has never won the title, and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Monaco 2013), which does not bode well for Lajovic’s chances this week.

Seeded players have a good record at Kitzbuhel over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than ten won four of the last ten titles (last Lorenzi 2016) and a player seeded no higher than ten was a losing finalist four times during this period (last Thiem 2014). Unseeded players also have a good record at Kitzbuhel winning five of the last ten titles (last Klizan 2018) and a player seeded no higher than ten was a losing finalist four times during this period (last Istomin 2018).

From a betting perspective past statistics suggest opposing the top two seeds and siding with a player seeded from three to eight and/or siding with an unseeded player or two. To find out who I’m tipping this week you can access them via the Tennis PayPal buttons.

Moving back to America’s and Los Cabos is a new tournament that only commenced three seasons ago in 2016. With Washington attracting some of the world’s top stars this week Los Cabos has obviously suffered as a result so there’s not a strong field contesting this year's title. Top seed and defending champion Fognini lines-up again to defend his title and the likes of Pella and Schwartzman from Argentina, Pouille from France and Fritz from the USA should help to ensure the field is competitive this week.

From a betting perspective, there’s obviously not much historical data to help analyse the draw, but statistics gathered so far suggest one of the top three seeds have the best chance of winning the title. To find out who I’m tipping this week you can access them via the Tennis PayPal buttons.


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