The ATP Tour returns today after a week break due to the Davis Cup and there are two European ATP 250 Indoor tournaments taking place at Metz, France and St Petersburg, Russia. Both of this week’s tournaments have attracted decent fields and at Metz 2014 winner and top-seed this week Goffin heads the field along with the likes of seventh seed, three-time title winner and defending champion veteran Simon, fourth seed and 2016 champion Pouille and three-time champion, veteran Tsonga.
At St Petersburg defending champion Thiem does not line up to defend his title instead, he chose to help his home nation Austria win their Group I Davis Cup tie against Finland last week. Top seed and US Open losing finalist Medvedev lines-up to try and win his home title for the first time, as does top-seed and compatriot Khachanov. Other big names who line up for a shot at winning this year’s title are US Open quarter-finalist’s and fourth seed Wawrinka and fifth seed Berettinni and world number fifteen and third seed Coric from Croatia.
I will start my analysis with the tournament at Metz and it’s not surprising it’s been a happy hunting ground for French players who won seven of the last ten titles (last Simon 2018). The top seed has quite a strong record having won three of the last ten titles (last Tsonga 2012) and they were also a losing finalist twice during this period (last 2016 Thiem), which bodes well for Goffin’s chances this week.
The second seed has not performed as well winning only one of the last ten titles (Simon 2013) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last 2015 Simon), which does not bode well for Basilashvili’s chances this week. Seeded players have performed well at Metz over the last decade and a player seeded no higher than eight won eight of the last ten titles (last Pouille 2016). A player seeded no higher than seven was a losing finalist eight times during this period (last Paire 2017). Unseeded players have performed well in the last two renewals winning both titles (last Simon 2018), which were the only two title wins over the last decade and an unseeded player lost two of the last ten finals (last Bachinger 2018).
From a tournament betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player who has proven winning form indoors, it’s also worth considering an unseeded player or two including qualifiers, as they made the last two finals and French players have to be included given their dominant records at Metz since it’s inception.
At St Petersburg the top seed has an average record over the last decade winning two of the last ten titles (last Thiem 2018), and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Wawrinka 2016), which does not bode well for Medvedev’s chances this week. The second seed does not have a great record at St Petersburg either, winning one of the last ten titles (last Raonic 2015) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (last Tipsarevic 2011), which does not bode well for Khachanov’s chances this week.
Seeded players overall have a good record at St Petersburg and a player seeded no higher than six won seven of the last ten titles (last Thiem 2018) and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist seven times over the last decade (last Fognini 2017). Unseeded players have also experienced some success at St Petersburg over the last decade winning three of the last ten titles (last Dzhumur 2017) and an unseeded player was a losing finalist three times during this period (last Klizan 2018).
From an outright tournament betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a player seeded from three to eight and it’s also worth considering an unseeded player or two as an unseeded player has featured in six of the last ten finals.
