Tsonga (advised @ 9/1) won a record fourth Metz title yesterday beating unseeded Slovenian Bedene 6-7 7-6 6-3 in the final. Top seed and World number four Daniil Medvedev continued his amazing run and delighted home fans by winning his first ATP title on home soil at St Petersburg yesterday. Medvedev became the first Russian winner of the title since Youhzny back in 2004 and the young star defeated the talented young Croatian Coric 6-3 6-1 in the final.
On to this week’s ATP action and there are two 250 outdoor hardcourt tournaments to focus on in China, Chengdu and a new tournament in Zhuhai, which replaces Shenzhen and kicks off the Asian swing that culminates with Shanghai Masters 1000 Series in a few weeks’ time. Chengdu is still a newish tournament; this is its fourth renewal and defending champion Tomic doesn’t get the chance to defend his title as he lost in qualifying at the weekend. The new tournament in Zhuhai replaces Shenzhen, which ran for three seasons, and I’ll use the Shenzhen historical data to help analyze the draw as surface and conditions are very similar.
Chengdu hasn’t attracted any of the world’s top-ten players, but it’s still a competitive field with the likes of top seed Isner who was contesting the Laver Cup in Geneva for the World Team at the weekend, followed by second seed and NextGen star Auger-Alissiame from Canada, third seed Paire who reached the semi-finals at Metz last week and US Open semi-finalist Dimitrov to name a few. The top two seeds don’t have a great record at Chengdu, the top seed has never won the last three titles and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Fognini 2018), which does not bode well for Isner’s chances this week.
The second seed has never won the title or reached the final, which does not bode well for Auger-Alisiamme chances this week. A seeded player has never won the title, a player seeded no higher than five was a losing finalist twice (last Fognini 2018) and finally, unseeded players have experienced good success having won the last three titles (last Tomic 2018) and they were a losing finalist once (last Istomin 2017). From a betting perspective the best strategy looks to be opposing the top two seeds and players who were in action in Europe last week who reached the latter stages of Metz, St Petersburg and the Laver Cup due to the long-haul flight and short turnaround time as Chengdu starts Monday.
As mentioned above Zhuhai is a new tournament that replaces Shenzhen, which ran for five seasons. Qualifier Nishioka from Japan won the last Shenzhen title beating the unseeded Herbert in the final and Nishioka has opted play Chengdu this year. The tournament has attracted a competitive field and former World number one and three-time Slam winner Sir Andy Murray returns to the main ATP Tour for the first time since Winston Salem last month and his long-running hip injury and surgery saga. Top-seed Tsitsipas, who was in action at the Laver Cup for Team Europe last week, is the highest-ranked player in the field, followed by World number ten Bautista Agut, who was a reserve for Team Europe at the Laver Cup in Geneva.
Third seed and the current bad-boy of tennis Nick Kyrgios, who was in action for Team World at the Laver Cup last week, line’s up for a shot at winning his third ATP title of 2019, fellow Aussie and NextGen star De Minaur will also attempt to continue his excellent season by winning his third ATP title of 2019 and veteran and 2019 US Open quarter-finalist Monfils will aim to back-up his scintillating US Open form this week. Using the historical data from Shenzhen the top seed has won two of the last five titles (last Berdych 2016) and they were never a losing finalist during this period. The second seed has won two of the last five titles (last Goffin 2017) and they were never a losing finalist during this period.
Seeded players overall have a good record and a player seeded no higher than two won four of the last five titles (last Goffin 2017) and a player seeded no higher than five was a losing finalist four of the last five finals (last Dolgopolov 2017). Unseeded players don’t have a great record winning one of the last five titles (Nishioka 2018) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Herbert 2018). From a betting perspective the best strategy looks to be siding with a seeded player from one to five and consider a capable unseeded player or two as last year’s title and runner-up were unseeded.
