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  • Chris Sobey

Tennis


New World number four Medvedev from Russia picked up where he left off in St Petersburg a few weeks ago by storming to back-to-back titles, this time at the Shanghai Masters 1000 Series without dropping a set. Medvedev was sublime winning his second career master’s 1000 Series title and the manner of his win against fellow top NextGen star Zverev in Sunday’s final shows how much Medvedev has improved over the last twelve months compared to the rest of the NextGen.

On to this week action and its back to Europe for the remainder of the indoor swing and build up to the year-end ATP Tour finals next month. It’s another busy week on the ATP Tour with three 250 tournaments to focus on in Stockholm, Sweden, Moscow, Russia and a new tournament in Antwerp, Belgium. I will start by analysing the Stockholm event and defending champion Tsitsipas does not return to defend the title he won last year. Th tournament has not attracted any of the world’s top ten stars, but it will still be a competitive field with the likes of Fognini, Shapovalov, Dimitrov and Fritz to name a few taking part this week.

The top-seed has a good record at Stockholm winning four of the last ten titles (last Berdych 2015) and they were a losing finalist three times during this period (last Dimitrov 2017), which bodes well for Fognini’s chances this week. The second seed doesn’t have a great record at Stockholm winning one of the last ten titles (last Berdych 2012) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (Dimitrov 2012). Seeded players overall have a strong record at Stockholm and a player seeded no higher than seven won eight of the last ten titles (last Tsitsipas 2018) and a player seeded no higher than six was a losing finalist six times during this period (last Del Potro 2017).

Unseeded players have experienced mixed success at Stockholm, only winning one of the last ten titles (Baghdatis 2009), but they were a losing finalist five times during this period (last Gulbis 2018) including the last three seasons. From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player from three to six to win the title and its worth including a suitable in form unseeded player or two as such a player has reached the last three finals.

Moving on and I’ll analyse Moscow next, which has attracted a strong line-up with the likes of home hopes Medvedev, fresh off the back of his Shanghai Masters 1000 Series title win and fellow top ten star and reigning champion Khachanov heading the field. The top two seeds have a good record at Moscow; the top seed has won three of the last ten titles (last Cilic 2015), but they were never a losing finalist. The second seed won two of the last ten titles (last Cilic 2014) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Bautista Agut 2015).

Seeded players overall have dominated the Moscow title over the last decade. A player seeded no higher than six won nine of the last ten titles (last Khachanov 2018) and a player seeded no higher than six was a losing finalist six times during this period (last Bautista Agut 2015). Unseeded players have experienced mixed success at Moscow, winning one of the last ten titles (Troicki 2010), but they were a losing finalist four times during this period (last Mannarino 2018). From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player no higher than six to win the title and it’s worth considering a suitable unseeded player or two as such a player has contested the last three Moscow finals.

Finally, the tournament at Antwerp is a new event that started in 2016 and thus has little historical data to help analyse the draw. As a result, I’ll bypass Antwerp and look to include it in future analysis and betting strategies.


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