Sir Andy Murray rounded off his comeback from injury in fine style yesterday by beating long term rival Stan Wawrinka in the Antwerp final 3-6 6-4 6-4, which was his first title win since Dubai back in 2017. NextGen star Shapovalov from Canada won his first main ATP Tour title in Stockholm yesterday beating talented Serb Krajinovic in straight sets. NextGen Russian star Rublev enjoyed double celebrations yesterday, by winning his home title in Moscow on his birthday.
On to this week’s action and there are two European ATP 500 indoor tournaments in Basel, Switzerland and Vienna, Austria. Nine-time Basel champion and defending champion Roger Federer returns as the top-seed this week and will attempt to win a record tenth home title. Federer won’t have an easy defence, however, because the likes of big stars, second seed Zverev, third seed Tsitsipas and seventh seed and Antwerp finalist Wawrinka all line up for a shot at winning this title for the first time. Vienna has also attracted a decent field of world class talent with the likes of home hope and top seed Thiem, second seed Khachanov, third seed Berrettini and fourth seed Monfils to just a few.
Starting with Basel and the top seed has a strong record winning six of the last ten titles (last Federer 2018) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Federer 2012), which bodes well for Federer’s chances this week. The second seed doesn’t have a good a record at Basel winning two of the last ten titles (last Del Potro 2012) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Djokovic 2010).
Seeded players overall have a strong record at Basel and a player seeded no higher than four won the last ten titles (last Federer 2018) and a player seeded no higher than seven was a losing finalist eight times during this period (last Del Potro 2017). Unseeded players don’t have a good record at Basel, and they have never won the title over the last decade and an unseeded player was a losing finalist twice during this period (last Copil 2018). From a betting perspective in terms of winning the title, past statistics suggest siding with top seed Federer and/or a player seeded no higher than four.
At Vienna defending champion Anderson does not line-up to defend his title due to injury. The top seed has a good record at Vienna winning five of the last ten titles (last Murray 2016) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (last Ferrer 2014), which bodes well for Thiem’s chances this week. The second seed has a good record at Vienna as well winning three of the last ten titles (last Murray 2014) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (2011), which does not bode well for Andersons chances this week.
Seeded players in general have a good record at Vienna and a player seeded no higher than seven won eight of the last ten titles (last Anderson 2018) and they were a losing finalist once during this period (last Del Potro 2011). Seeded players overall have a strong record at Vienna and a player seeded no higher than seven won nine of the last ten titles (last Anderson 2018) and a player seeded no higher than eight was a losing finalist six of the last ten finals (last Nishikori 2018). Unseeded players have experienced mixed success at Vienna over the last decade only winning one of the last ten titles (Pouille 2017), but they were a losing finalist four times during this period (last Johnson 2015).
From a betting perspective past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player no higher than seven to win the title and it’s also worth siding with a suitable unseeded player or two at decent odds from each way perspective.