The great Roger Federer added another title and record to his ever-burgeoning CV yesterday, winning a tenth Basel Indoors title, seeing off the talented De Minaur 6-2 6-2. Over in Vienna, Thiem won his home title for the first time, seeing off the diminutive Schwartzman from Argentina in three sets.
On to this week’s ATP action and it’s the penultimate ATP Tournament of the season, the Paris Masters 1000 Series, which has a history of throwing up unexpected, big priced winners and finalists, due to its proximity to the ATP Tour Finals in London next month. This year’s renewal has attracted a stellar field with nine of the worlds top-ten stars lining up, including big guns Federer, Nadal and four-time Paris champion Djokovic. NextGen stars Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev and Tsitsipas also line-up for a shot at winning their first Paris title, as does defending champion Khachanov.
As well as the much-anticipated battle for the World number one year-end ranking between Djokovic and Nadal, which could be decided in London, there’s also the separate mini battle taking place between five players, for the final eighth place birth at the ATP Tour Finals. The top two seeds don’t have a great record at Paris; the top seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Djokovic 2015) and they were never a losing finalist during this period, which does not bode well for Djokovic’s chances this week. The second seed has won two of the last ten titles (last Murray 2016) and they were a losing finalist twice during this period (Murray 2015), which bodes well for four-time champion Djokovic’s chances this week.
Seeded players overall have a strong record at Paris; a player seeded no higher than sixteen won nine of the last ten titles (last 2017 Sock) and a player seeded no higher than fifteen was a losing finalist seven times during this period (last Khachanov 2018). Unseeded players don’t have a great record at Paris over overall; winning one of the last ten titles (Khachanov 2018) and they’ve were a losing finalist three times over the last decade (last Krajinovic 2017).
From a tournament betting perspective, past statistics suggest siding with a seeded player or two, ranked no higher than sixteen to win the title and it’s also worth including a suitable unseeded player to spring a surprise by at least reaching the final at decent odds.